Chapter 119




  台灣必須提早架構飛機與飛彈的來襲預警系統,美國戰略學家Richard Fisher,就明示美國若要在亞太平洋地區,得到充份的防衛,應該注意中共解放軍空軍,於2005年的犯台能力,為了確保亞太地區的和平,就要事先防患台海衝突,由於俄製Sukhoi Su-30MKK戰鬥機,不斷飛越海峽中線,其頻度以此次台灣立法委員尤甚。

  蘇聯製造Sukhoi Su-30MKK可以攜帶每次7700公斤短程飛彈,而一般短程彈導飛彈只可彈射450公斤的彈頭,顯然中共引進新戰機的飛彈攻擊力量,就遽增其可怕的威力。中共現階段的戰略佈署以攻打台灣為優先考慮,中共建構優勢空戰能力的要義,在於攻台以求得全面的統一。2005年中共可以獲得300~400架現代全方位的戰機,足以全天候攻打台灣,加上100架Su-30MKKs機組威勢嚇人,而自製之Chengdu J-10戰機的參予,如虎添翼,其動員人數可以短時間投入五萬名的軍力,未來台灣面對此種攻擊,會於短期間失去反擊力量,而不得不投降。




US defense expert warns of airborne threat from China

2001.12.21 The Taipei Times

The Chinese air force could overwhelm a single carrier's defenses if that is all the US could send to aid Taiwan in the event of armed conflict in the Taiwan Strait, a US expert on Chinese military developments warned in a recently published article.

Richard Fisher, a senior fellow at the Jamestown Foundation, a Washington-based think tank, wrote in the most recent issue of Jamestown's China Brief that it is therefore "correct" for the Pentagon to call for an increased US military presence in the western Pacific region in its September 2001 Quadrennial Review.

By 2005, Fisher wrote, the People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) will pose a much more formidable threat to Taiwan itself and to US forces in Asia. It could effectively destroy Taiwan's defenses in a large pre-emptive strike when coordinated with massive missile strikes, he added.

"Ongoing PLAAF modernization makes necessary appropriate US measures to ensure the deterrence of conflict in the Taiwan Strait," Fisher wrote, because without "countervailing actions by Taiwan and the US, by 2005 the PLA Air Force could begin to gain superiority" in the Taiwan Strait.

Fisher wrote that according to newspaper reports, the PLAAF sent its new Sukhoi Su-30MKK fighter jets out to the mid-line of the Taiwan Strait in early November, perhaps to intimidate Taiwan before the nation's Dec. 1 legislative elections.

He went on to write that it is important to watch the PLAAF because, though a short-range ballistic missile might carry only a 450kg warhead, a strike fighter such as the Russian-made Su-30MKK can carry about 7,700kg on each mission.

"A war's outcome will depend on the PLA's ability to secure and exploit effective air superiority in the Taiwan theater of operations," he wrote.

Fisher attributed the drive behind the PLAAF's modernization to the growing political consensus among Beijing's leaders to "build a modern PLA capable of playing a key role in forcing unification with Taiwan under Beijing's terms."

Quoting recent reports, Fisher wrote that the PLAAF could acquire between 300 and 400 modern multi-role fighters by 2005 that are capable of all-weather attack missions with modern precision-guided weapons. These aircraft could include 100 Su-30MKKs and hundreds of indigenously built Chengdu J-10 fighters, he added.

In terms of airborne forces, Fisher quoted reports suggesting that China's 15th Airborne Army might be substantially expanded to a force that exceeds 50,000 men.

"The danger is that such a force could prove instrumental in either scaring Taiwan into submission or, if used correctly, could deliver the final blow needed to force Taiwan's surrender," Fisher wrote.