Chapter 153     part1
 
 
中共不可能永久控制中國人-武力霸權的省思

 

  北韓仗著背後有中共撐腰,認為以核武就可以要挾西方民主國家,提供經援與借貸,美國與南韓對此種黑社會的流氓國家非常頭痛。

  因此,此次911恐怖活動的啟示,改變國家與國家各擁國防的概念,而是採取世界同盟聯防的共同作戰觀念,到現在為止,中共的黷武思想傳承至霸權中國思惟,以為惟一強大的核武力量就可以穩操勝算,坐擁江山,成為經改之後的新興強權。

  美國之得到國際認可,乃因為其民族思想帶著包容的民主人權觀念,雖然它現在的經濟景氣不振,但是其潛在的動力隨時可以凝聚,中共能嗎?美國政府可以接納中共,栽培中共財經、法政、軍的人材,而中共一旦獨霸,中共能夠有如此包容的心,來為敵對國家以自由放任的尺度來培訓其國之人民嗎?中共之對台灣小小丸島皆不得放其心,中共之壯大會是全世界的黑夜?故中共得快快加油,政權民主化吧!

  這裏有篇北韓不放棄核武南侵的報導,美國智庫組織傳統基金會,以道德勸說的方式,要求北韓能懸崖勒馬,不要再支援亞洲各地的恐怖組織,如Liberation Tigers, United Wa State Army, drug-trafficking group in golden triangle ...
緬甸、尼泊爾、印尼、馬來西亞、泰國的反恐怖份子。

  參考其英文報導:  

 

North Korea Deserves to Remain on U.S. List of Sponsors of Terrorism

BY Balbina Hwang
November 19, 2001


In its bid to win the war against terrorism, the Bush Administration should ignore the calls of countries like North Korea that want to be dropped from its list of terrorist states in exchange for their nominal support for this campaign. The Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) has been included on the U.S. Department of State's list of states that sponsor terrorism since 1988, after North Korean agents blew up a South Korean airliner, killing 115 civilians.1

The same totalitarian regime continues to hold power in Pyongyang, and North Korea continues to harbor terrorists. Nevertheless, it demands that the United States remove it from its list of terrorist states and denounces the U.S. campaign to eradicate global terrorism as "hostile." The United States should not respond by pandering to North Korean demands.

This does not mean that the Administration should abandon its current policy of reciprocal engagement with North Korea. Reciprocal and verifiable engagement is the best available option for the United States to ensure long-term stability on the Korean Peninsula and contribute to the effort to cement a permanent peace treaty for the Korean people.

Indeed, President Bush has stated that he continues to support the so-called Sunshine Policy toward this goal developed by President Kim Dae Jung of South Korea. And in a joint press conference on November 15, U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld and South Korean Minister of Defense Kim Dong Shin pledged their full and close coordination in the fight against terrorism.

Rather than rush to drop North Korea from the State Department's list, the United States should insist that the DPRK take credible action to show that it no longer supports terrorism, beginning with the deportation of the four Japanese Red Army hijackers it has harbored for years and taking full responsibility for its own former terrorist acts. North Korea also should meet the burden of proof that it is a responsible member of the international community by not proliferating weapons, including weapons of mass destruction, to terrorist organizations.

U.S. Relations with North Korea

Before the September 11 attacks, the United States seemed to be moving toward removing North Korea from its list of terrorist nations, particularly during the latter years of the Clinton Administration. Being on this list prevents North Korea, whose economy has collapsed, from receiving aid, loans, and investment from multilateral organizations such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund.

In the past, North Korea had insisted that it be removed from the list before it would conduct any high-level discussions with the United States. 2 But on October 6, 2000, President Bill Clinton and Jo Myong Rok, the first vice chairman of North Korea's National Defense Commission, met at the White House in the highest-level meeting between officials of the two countries since the 1953 cease-fire agreement ending the Korean War.

One of the outcomes of the October 6 meeting was a joint declaration in which North Korea denounced terrorism and the two sides committed themselves to an exchange of data on international terrorism. This agreement was widely hailed as an early step toward removing North Korea from the State Department's list of state sponsors of terrorism.

In the days immediately following the September 11 attacks, North Korea's foreign ministry expressed regret and joined the worldwide condemnation of terrorism. More recently, Pyongyang has also pledged to sign two more U.N.-sponsored anti-terrorism treaties, the International Convention for the Suppression of the Financing of Terrorism 3 and the International Convention Against the Taking of Hostages. 4 North Korea has now joined seven of the 12 U.N. conventions against terrorism, including four aviation-related pacts 5 and the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of Crimes Against Internationally Protected Persons, which outlaws attacks on senior government officials and diplomats. 6

Since September 11, however, North Korea has used the recent world focus on terrorism as an opportunity to condemn the United States for its policies. Repeatedly expressing opposition toward terrorism, the North has been urging the Bush Administration to remove it from its list of sponsors of terrorism and demanding that the United States halt what it calls "hostile" American policy against it. The regime declared recently, for example, that

the philosophy of our nation is centered on the value of humans and this speaks for itself that there can be no connection between us and terrorism. And yet despite our opposition towards terrorism the U.S. still leaves us on a despicable list and imparts hostility towards us.

North Korea also claims that the U.S. terrorist classification is "absolutely unjust" and denounces Washington for "finding groundless fault" with its policies. Pyongyang believes that the United States is the source of international terrorism--an apparent criticism of U.S. military involvement in the Persian Gulf War and Kosovo. Its logic: It believes interference in another country's internal affairs is aggression and a form of terrorism.

The United States, prior to September 11, had three preconditions for removing North Korea from the State Department's list of terrorist states:

  • Signing the international conventions against terrorism,
  • Publicly denouncing terrorism, and
  • Deporting the four Japanese Red Army terrorists it continues to harbor.

Clearly, when North Korea publicly denounced terrorism and pledged to sign the international treaties on combating terrorism earlier this month, it did so with the goal of being removed from the U.S. list of state sponsors of terrorism. But the Bush Administration should not allow token gestures to equate with real action.

International treaties may be symbols of international solidarity, but they are no substitute for an active campaign to eliminate the global scourge of terrorism and hardly a reliable measure of a state's commitment to this effort. 9 This is evident in the growing, not waning, influence that terrorism has had in world affairs despite the signing by many countries of international treaties and conventions.

North Korea and Terrorism

Perhaps more significant than North Korea's stated commitments against terrorism are its activities that contribute both to instability in the region and to the proliferation of terrorist organizations.

According to one estimate, North Korea--whose economy is so dysfunctional that it relies on international aid to feed its people--spends over 14 percent of its gross domestic product on its immense military force. Since the early 1990s, when its economy collapsed, the DPRK has pursued trade with such states as Angola, Burma, Cuba, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Pakistan, and Syria as its only means of earning hard currency. Most of the trade involves arms, chemical and biological weapons materials, and even ballistic missile technology--in clear violation of the Missile Technology Control Regime. Libya, for example, recently bought 50 Rodong-1 missiles from North Korea with a range of 1,000 kilometers.

Significantly, the North has sold weapons to such terrorist groups as the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam and the United Wa State Army, a drug-trafficking group active in the Burmese sector of the golden triangle (Laos, Burma, and Thailand). In addition to supplying terrorist organizations, North Koreans have been seen training in the terrorist camps in Afghanistan.

The threat of terrorism from North Korea was made clear by the Deputy Director of the Central Intelligence Agency, John E. McLaughlin, who warned earlier this year that

North Korea's challenge to regional and global security is magnified by two factors...first, the North's pursuit of weapons of mass destruction and long-range missiles, and two, its readiness--and eagerness--to become missile salesman to the world.

North Korea had been accused of state-sponsored terrorism long before Afghanistan decided to give shelter to Osama bin Laden. It has been on the U.S. Department of State's list of states supporting international terrorism since 1988, following the 1987 bombing of a South Korean airliner by North Korean agents that killed over a hundred people. The U.S. State Department's annual Pattern of Global Terrorism report for 2000 states that North Korea has links with terror organizations, has sold arms to these groups directly and indirectly, and continues to harbor several Red Army hijackers of a Japanese Airlines flight en route to North Korea in the 1970s. The State Department's 1999 report stated that North Korea had links with Osama bin Laden.

North Korea is not known to have sponsored any terrorist acts directly since 1987, and the DPRK declares at every opportunity that it shuns every form of terrorism and any act that assists it. 16 Yet its actions over the years belie such statements.

The DPRK has consistently engaged in maneuvers to undermine the South since signing the 1953 Armistice Agreement to end the war on the Peninsula. It has committed over 300 instances of provocation against the South and in the 1990s alone infiltrated the South in at least 15 separate incidents. In one of the most blatant, 26 North Korean commandos in a submarine landed off the South Korean coast in September 1996; they, along with 17 South Koreans, were killed in the ensuing manhunt. Their mission is believed to have been to assassinate South Korean dignitaries.

Since 1953, North Korea has kidnapped over 3,600 Korean citizens. While most have been returned, 442 are still being held. It also has abducted foreigners, most notably 10 Japanese citizens, which remains a key obstacle to normalizing relations with Japan. Other acts of state-sponsored terrorism include the following:

  • In November 1969, a domestic Korean civilian airliner was hijacked and 51 passengers were taken to the North, where 12 still remain in captivity.

  • In January 1968, a North Korean commando team sought to blow up the presidential residence in Seoul, assassinate government officials, and blow up the U.S. embassy. Fortunately, the attempt was foiled and the members of the team were captured.

  • On October 9, 1983, one of the most devastating North Korean acts against South Korea occurred in Burma, when an assassination attempt was made on President Chun Doo-Hwan. The bombing killed 17 senior Korean officials, including cabinet ministers, and wounded 14 others.

Thus, despite repeated DPRK declarations condemning terrorism, including a 1991 joint pledge with the South to "refrain from all acts destroying and overthrowing the other side" and not use arms against one another, and a May 1994 statement "opposing any act encouraging and supporting terrorism," its actions betray its lack of sincerity. Notably, the 1996 submarine incursion, as well as a subsequent submarine incident in 1998, occurred despite the cooperation underway under the Agreed Framework established in 1994 with the United States.

How to Treat North Korea Now

The Bush Administration should not rush to remove North Korea from its list of states sponsoring terrorism even after Pyongyang meets all three conditions of signing international conventions against terrorism, denouncing terrorism, and expelling the Red Army hijackers. Before it considers taking the DPRK off the list, the Bush Administration should:

  • Make clear to Pyongyang that it must:

-- Take full responsibility for its acts of terrorism and credibly prove that it will no longer support such acts in the future.

-- Cooperate fully with the international coalition to eradicate terrorism by disclosing any information it has on terrorist groups operating in Central Asia and elsewhere.

-- Immediately halt all arms sales and proliferation of weapons of mass destruction to terrorist organizations or terrorist-sponsoring states.

  • Stay the course on the U.S. policy of reciprocal engagement with North Korea. The United States has already stated that it is willing to meet with North Korea any place, at any time, to work toward improving bilateral relations. For any such effort to be successful, however, Pyongyang must continue its dialogue with Seoul and the United States on:

-- A permanent peace treaty.

-- Agreement between the South and the North about the political situation on the Peninsula.

-- A reduction in conventional military forces along the demilitarized zone and destabilizing weapons of mass destruction.

-- The return of the remains of U.S. military personnel missing in action during the Korean War.

Conclusion

The events of September 11 have made the eradication of terrorism the most immediate and important goal of the United States, but North Korea remains a profound threat and challenge to peace and stability in East Asia, and indeed the world. Because of North Korea's continuing connection to terrorism, the United States should proceed with great caution before removing North Korea from its list of state sponsors of terrorism.

--Balbina Hwang is Policy Analyst for Northeast Asia in the Asian Studies Center at The Heritage Foundation.


  我整理這些資料給各位做為參考:

 

漢和情報評論証實中共殲十A型戰機正式量產

中央社 2002/01/18


  (中央社記者張聲肇渥太華十八日專電) 漢和情報評論發言人平可夫今天證實,中國大陸成都飛機工業集團以及第一三二廠將從今年開始生產首批J10A殲擊轟炸機。第一批的產量大約是五十架。

  莫斯科權威軍事工業界消息來源對漢和記者表示,五十四台AL31FN發動機已經從去年年底開始運交中國大陸,運交過程完全按照合約進行。漢和情報獲悉,一架J10試驗機使用了AL31FN發動機。

  消息來源強調,二零零零年十月二十五日,中共航空技術代表團一行十二人到達莫斯科正式驗收Zhemchung多功能雷達。它可能與J10A的批量生產有直接關系。Zhem chung的前視搜索距離一百二十公里,尾追搜索距離五十公里,可以邊跟蹤邊掃描二十個目標,並鎖定其中最危險的二到四個目標。搜索範圍正負九十度。J10A開放型的火控系統使其可以使用大部分俄式、中共式空對空、空對地導彈,包括正在研發之中的PL12主動雷達誘導導彈,和Kh系列電視制導炸彈。

  平可夫強調,儘管J10雷達性能離歐美標準還有相當距離,但是,飛機的超前設計,讓它擁有很大的改良餘地。

  殲十A型的出現,大大地縮短了中共戰鬥機與俄式、歐洲戰鬥機的距離,為新一代隱性戰鬥機的設計奠定了很好的基礎。其優化的氣動外型設計和使用俄式發動機,表明殲十戰鬥機擁有非常好的空中機動性。殲十A定型,則標誌中國大陸戰鬥機工業結束了一味仿製的時代。從歐洲戰鬥機和日本次期支援戰鬥機出現的時間來看,殲十A的服役並不算太晚。910118

 

 

殲十量產 衝著幻象戰機而來

中國時報  91/01/20
王綽中


  正當台灣第二代戰機完成換裝之際,大陸軍事網站傳出,中共將在今年量產高性能自製的殲十戰機。有關軍事專家認為,先進的殲十戰機量產,象徵中共空軍的技術水平已獲得明顯提升,對於原先擁有美、法優勢戰機的台灣空軍而言,將面臨嚴厲的挑戰。

 中共研製殲十戰機時間超過十五年,屬大陸國產第四代戰機。殲十戰機屬多用途、單引擎、單座、戰術戰鬥機,造型及材質新穎,空中隱蔽性佳,設計目的之一在於對抗台灣空軍的幻象戰機。

 據大陸軍事專家指出,中共研製殲十初期,曾試圖根據巴基斯坦提供的一架美製F-16戰機戰機為藍本,並由以色列雄獅戰機計畫的工作人員協助。以色列提供了雷達及火力控制系統,尤其是以色列自製的ELM-二○二一系統。

 據指出,這種系統可以同時跟蹤六個目標,並選定其中最具威脅的四個目標加以鎖定摧毀。除了引擎、雷達、電子、火控等系統,殲十還具備其它特點,諸如採用三角翼,確保高速飛行時的穩定。俄羅斯先進的戰機引擎AL- 31-FN,將在今年內交運中共,安裝在殲十戰機上。

 大陸有關專家提供殲十性能如下:機長14.5 7公尺;翼展8.78公尺; 最大起飛重量19277公斤;最大速度2.0馬赫;最大升限18000公尺;作戰半徑1100公里;最大航程2500公里;主要武器PL8、PL10、R73、R77空對空導彈及其他空對地、空對艦導彈。

 有以色列雄獅戰機影子的殲十戰機,從中共研製過程來看,中共對軍事航空技術的引進,不再是一面倒地倚靠俄羅斯,而是通過對雄獅戰機的技術引進,另闢蹊徑吸收美國技術。

 

 

「軍火大買家」意在嚇阻美介入台海戰爭

中國時報 � 91/01/10


 宋秉忠/台北報導 中共在二○○○年購入約三十億美元的武器裝備,成為全球最大的軍火採購國,另一方面,透過向各國引入民用技術及設備,中共軍力也大幅提升。即使共軍無法在各個軍事領域中趕上西方先進國家,但只要攻台時,軍力足以嚇阻美軍介入,中共就達成它的戰略目的。

 雖然,中共包辦了近一半俄羅斯出口的武器,但透過更不為人知的民用技術轉移途徑,將來一旦中共攻台,所使用的武器可不只是蘇二七、現代艦、基洛級潛艦,以色列的預警雷達、英國的定位系統,甚至美國的核彈及飛彈,都會出現。

 「遠東經濟評論」引用瑞典斯得哥爾摩「國際和平研究所」的二○○一年鑑指出,中共在二○○○年即成為世界上最大的軍火採購國,軍購總值在三十億美元左右,是其他任何國家的兩倍,但在祕密的國際軍火市場裡,中共到底花了多少錢買武器,沒有人知道。

 軍事專家估計,俄羅斯去年四十億美元的軍火銷售,一半賣給中國,如果將所謂軍民兩用技術轉移列入計算,中國軍購費用可能遠遠超過三十億美元。

 華盛頓的中共軍事問題專家費雪指出,解放軍現代化的各個領域,幾乎都在一定程度上採購、利用、吸收和發展外國技術。去年中共公布的國際預算是一七二億美元,但據費雪表示,實際花費可能超過六百億美元。去年三月中共宣布國防預算增長百分之十七,而且有跡象顯示,中共將再次增加今年的國防預算。

 自從天安門事件,西方實施武器禁運後,俄羅斯和以色列已成為中共大規模軍事採購的主要受益者。即便如此,透過所謂軍民兩用技術的轉移,據美國威斯康辛的一個研究機構估計,從八九到九九年,美國向中國出售的敏感戰略技術在一百五十億美元左右,其中包括設計和試驗核武必需的電腦,製造導彈零件的工具機、製造軍用半導體的特殊設備等。

 事實上,美國高科技的主要顧客中,就包括製造反艦導彈的「中國精密機械進出口集團」、設計武器的「國防科技大學」、被控協助提升伊拉克空防的「華為」科技公司等。

 近年來,國際上,特別是美國,都在注意中國間諜竊取美國核武實驗室技術,但實際上,中國不是竊取,而是購買。

 台北的中共軍事問題專家指出,西方的公司都想涉足中國的軍火採購市場,他們與中共建立聯繫的方式,就是出售軍民兩用和非殺傷性技術給中共。

 例如,英國的引擎製造商勞斯萊斯最近出售中共九十個SPEY噴射引擎和零件,這些引擎可能已被裝在殲轟七型戰機上;對此,勞斯萊斯辯稱,它向中國出售的引擎使用的是六十年代的技術,不過大幅提升共軍戰力,但美國國防部反對勞斯萊斯與中國的交易,擔心解放軍的戰力會因為勞斯萊斯的技術而加強。

 不過,去年十月,勞斯萊斯的首席執行官羅斯仍然訪問了中國大陸,與中共國防科工委官員商討「近期的合作及未來合作的可能」。

 一九九六年,英國RACAL集團出售八具機載長程雷達,裝在中共海軍的運八型運輸機上,英方宣稱,這些裝備是協助北京反走私,但有軍事專家指出,裝備這型雷達的飛機被中共用來協助導彈驅逐艦標定遠程目標。

 還有一家生產小型衛星的英國公司,透過與北京清華大學的合作,把相關技術引入中國大陸,專家相信,這種技術對於中共在台海進行的海空協同作戰,非常重要。這家公司宣稱,有關合作不具任何軍事意義,但卻沒有任何防止共軍從衛星取得資料的措施。

 在各國商人都說,「高科技輸往中國,不會提升中共軍力」的情況下,「遠東經濟評論」形容未來的台海戰爭會是:中國造的飛機,攜帶俄國和以色列造的飛彈,用英國和以色列的雷達和電子設備搜尋目標;中國海軍則出動俄國戰艦和潛艦,但用的是美國和烏克蘭引擎,配備義大利魚雷;中國空軍則使用法國的空對空飛彈、戰管系統和直升機;在陸上

,許多共軍裝甲車用的是以色列設計的裝甲,一些老式坦克則是裝備了以色列的炮管和瞄準器;地平面以上,英國和德國造的衛星監視戰場,引導海空軍運動;在此同時,由於美國的協助,中共的核嚇阻力量也大幅提升。

 北京並不吝於展現其日漸壯大的軍力,去年十一月,八千噸的導彈驅逐艦「深圳號」訪問歐洲後,就停靠在香港,這艘軍艦就是中共如何建造世界先進戰艦的範例:烏克蘭的汽渦輪、法國的CROTALE防空飛彈、俄國的YJ2反艦飛彈和兩架俄國KA28反潛直升機。

 台北的中共軍事專家指出,大幅增加軍購可使中共迅速拉近與美國等西方國家的軍力差距,對台海構成實質威脅;即使共軍無法在各個軍事領域中趕上西方先進國家,但只要攻台時,軍力足以嚇阻美軍介入,中共就達成它的戰略目的。

 

 

 

北京軍火庫 俄、以撐開半邊天

中國時報 91/01/20


 徐尚禮/台北報導 對俄國及以色列而言,中國大陸是極其重要的武器銷售市場,有了這一巨大市場,俄、以才能維持國防工業開銷,進而支撐其國家安全。

 「遠東經濟評論」說,自從蘇聯垮台後,俄國軍工業靠著中國市場,得以讓工廠繼續運轉,工人有薪水拿,各軍工廠得以不斷研發新武器,以免落後於西方先進科技。

 聖彼得堡的「北方造船廠」(sevrtnaya ve rf)是俄國為中國打造的軍火庫。近年來,這個廠接到來自中國的數十億美元訂單,項目包括「蘇凱」二十七戰機、「蘇凱」三十戰機及改良的「基洛級」傳統潛艦等。

 俄國國際傳真社軍事消息說,元月四日,北方造廠船接獲中國十億美元訂單,再為中國建造兩艘「現代級」驅逐艦。預定在二○○六年交艦。「現代級」艦是為打擊美國航空母艦而設計。

 但是,俄國也不是什麼都賣。例如,TU22M 「逆火型」超音速戰術打擊炸彈,及「蘇凱」三十五戰機俄國就不願售予中國。由於無法取得相關技術,中國只能仰賴俄國零件及維修。 

  至於以色列軍售中國,可能只是著眼於經濟。以色列一大學軍武專家史坦勃格說,「就如同美國和其他國家一般,對中國軍售主要動機是經濟考量」。他指出,以色列軍火銷售對象選擇性較少。沙烏地及其他阿拉伯回教國家不在銷售名單內。因此,中國是重要客戶。

 由於以色列的軍事科技部分來自美國,以色列和中國進行軍火交易常引發爭議。以色列的理由是,售予中國武器才可以維持其軍事科技進展,不會落後於阿拉伯國家。

 美國國防圈懷疑,以色列已經出售中國「愛國者」反飛彈系統(美國研發),地對地飛彈及反艦飛彈和地面雷達等。

 以色列還被認為協助中國發展「殲十」戰機。中國正在研發的「殲十」戰機和已被取消的美、以「拉維」戰機計劃有關。國際軍事專家指出,以色列可能和中國分享該計劃中的最高機密-雷射武器系統。

 雖然以色列表示,售予中國的軍工項目都是自身研發,但多數專家懷疑以色列對美國的保證有幾分真實性。