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Beware blue-camp on Feb. 19, 2004 ……
Beware blue-camp collaborators
China's blind spot is its overestimation of the power of military force. China has believed from the beginning that it can maintain a unified country through military suppression. The suppression of dissident movements in Tibet and Xinjiang are examples. But Taiwan is buffered by the Taiwan Strait. China's pent-up frustration explodes whenever Taiwan holds an election. If it can't attack Taiwan, it must at least cause its voters to have nightmares and stay away from the polls.
The US had to dispatch warships to the seas near Taiwan during the two previous presidential elections so that Taiwan could hold the votes without fear. How an election be called free if everyone is shaking and trembling? We might as well let China appoint Taiwan's leaders. Beijing could directly appoint Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Chairman Lien Chan or People First Party Chairman James Soong. If that doesn't work, there's also Taipei Mayor Ma Ying-jeou.
The three have worked hard to oppose the March 20 referendum. How could they let the people of Taiwan hold a referendum? How could they not be guilty of betraying their ancestors in China? When Taiwanese talk politics with the Chinese, the issues are impossible to resolve. Taiwanese think about their future while the Chinese think about their ancestors' graves. Though clearly driven by their anti-independence sentiments, the Chinese accuse others of putting the "red" tag on them. They hide among the Taiwanese people and fight a camouflaged war. China does not have to take any action itself.
If that doesn't work, there are Taiwanese hired guns such as Legislative Speaker Wang Jin-pyng, KMT legislators Lee Chuan-chiao, Lee Chia-chin and Lin Yi-shih, and KMT spokesman Alex Tsai. They can be more nasty than Beijing when they attack President Chen Shui-bian. This is no joke. If they can trip up Chen on behalf of their overlord, their overlord will reward them. Their names will then be in China's history textbooks.
Let's suppose Taiwan has been punished by the heavens to be ruled by one alien regime after another. Such operations have depended on Taiwanese collaborators. Only time will tell whether Taiwanese can shape a national identity. Fortunately, Taiwan still has US protection so its people can vote with assurance.
China could have played the role of the US and become a protector of freedom and democracy in Asia. Who would have known that China would go down the path of depravity and start barking from the other side of the Strait?
No matter how vehemently Lien, Soong and Ma oppose the referendum, the bow is already on the string. Scrapping the referendum would be equivalent to accepting China's appointment of Lien and Soong as Taiwan's leaders. Several decades of democratic progress will come to naught.
These three Chinese men -- Lien, Soong and Ma -- do not call on their motherland to remove her ballistic missiles. Instead, they call on Chen to scrap the referendum. If they have the balls, they might as well call on their motherland to invade Taiwan.
The Ministry of National Defense confirmed on Tuesday that the US is sending the command and control ship USS Blue Ridge and the aircraft carrier USS Kitty Hawk on visits to Hong Kong at the end of this month and early next month. The presence of the ships in Hong Kong will be a strong shot in the arm for Taiwan. Remember: the US sent the USS Nimitz near Taiwan during the 1996 election, and the Kitty Hawk during the 2000 election.
In the eyes of Taiwanese, it can't be
clearer whether the US or China cherishes democracy more. One wonders if
China's intellectuals can learn a bit of reason and truth from Taiwan's
election and move beyond brainwashing.
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On Feb. 19, 2004 ……
US getting fed up with Beijing's belligerence
By Paul Lin
In a speech before the US Congress, US Secretary of State Colin Powell said the Bush administration "doesn't really see a need" for Taiwan to hold a referendum, "but Taiwan is a democratic place, if they choose to have a referendum, they can have a referendum. We've made clear to them, however, that we do not want to see these actions lead in any way to change in the situation."
What Powell meant was, first, there is no need for Taiwan to hold a referendum; second, the US does not oppose a referendum in Taiwan.
However, Chinese-language media all over the world lead their stories with headlines emphasizing the US' opposition to the referendum rather than its respect for Taiwan's democracy. Such discourse obviously coincides with China's position in opposing the referendum and fomenting dissension between the US and Taiwan. It also reflects Beijing's success in permeating and brainwashing the Chinese-language media.
After his meeting with Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, US President George W. Bush made some comments on Taiwan's political situation. Beijing on the one hand "encouraged" Bush by praising him. On the other, it said that Washington had not done enough in taking concrete steps to prevent Taiwan from holding a referendum. Some Chinese "academics" made this known to the US by making comments. Chen Yunlin, the head of the Taiwan Affairs Office of China's State Council, also put pressure on the Bush administration during his US visit earlier this month.
Next, Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Zhou Wenzhong said in an interview with the Asian Wall Street Journal that the US must make a statement that indicates its strong opposition to Taiwan's referendum plan. He further made a vague threat by saying that Beijing hopes that Washington understands the severe consequences if Taiwan continues to put forward a referendum.
These insatiable demands and truculent threats that disregarded the sovereignty of the US finally repulsed the US Congress and government. They thus took the following actions recently to refrain China:
First, the US pointed out that
China's military threat is also very dangerous to the cross-strait relationship
and represents an attempt to change the status quo.
Second, Washington pressured European nations several times not to lift their arms embargo against China.
Third, the US transferred a group of
B52 bombers and a couple of nuclear submarines to Guam. This move seemed to
target North Korea but in fact they are closer to the Taiwan Strait.
Fourth, Washington is thinking about
proposing a motion at the UN Human Rights Commission, due to open soon, to
criticize China's human rights record.
Fifth, US Under Secretary for Global Affairs Paula Dobriansky said that dissemination of democracy is an important component of the war against terrorism. From her statement, we can understand why Powell respects Taiwan's decision to hold the referendum.
Sadly, Taiwan cannot have referendum questions on more important, sensitive issues under the pressure exerted internationally by China.
Sadly again, a democratic superpower like the US has to compromise under China's intimidation on the issue of Taiwan.
However, as a world leader, the US can be reasonably expected by Taiwan to do more in disseminating the universal value of democracy.
Paul Lin is a political commentator based in New York.
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On Feb. 19, 2004 ……
Despite referendum debates, PFP sticks to its guns
By Huang Tai-lin, STAFF REPORTER
The People First Party (PFP) legislative caucus yesterday urged people not to pick up their referendum ballots, saying that doing so "is also a means of voting."
The PFP legislative caucus' call was a rehashing of party Chairman James Soong's assertion on Tuesday that he would not pick up his referendum ballots on March 20.
"All law-abiding citizens have the right to not pick up their referendum ballots, since the proposed referendum is illegal and there is already a national consensus about the two referendum questions," said PFP Legislator Hsieh Chang-chieh.
"Refusing to vote in the referendum and not picking up a ballot reflects the universal values and consensus among the citizens. We want to tell the public that law-abiding citizens should refuse to vote in the referendum and only pick up ballots for the presidential election," Hsieh said.
PFP legislator Liu Wen-hsiung) said the PFP will not mobilize voters to boycott the referendum in order to show respect to voters' judgment.
"We will only try to make clear the illegality of the issue and leave the decision [of whether to pick up the ballots] to the voters. As for the Chinese Nationalist Party's [KMT's] decision regarding the referendum, we will respect whatever they decide for themselves," Liu said.
Commenting on the group of talk show hosts who expressed interest in participating in a debate regarding the proposed referendum a day earlier, PFP legislator Chen Chin-hsin said the pan-blue alliance was not aware that the group had been intending to volunteer to be the representatives of the "opposition" side of the debate.
The group forming the opposition team included independent Legislator Sisy Chen, writer Li Ao and TV news program host Jaw Shaw-kong.
The Central Election Commission (CEC) is planning a series of 10 debates, five for each of the two questions on the referendum proposed by President Chen Shui-bian on Jan. 16.
In view of the failure of the opposition KMT-PFP alliance legislative caucuses to present their lists of potential candidates for the debate to the CEC on Monday, a coalition of talk show hosts famous for their anti-Chen stance launched a signature drive on Tuesday, petitioning for the chance to play the voice of the opposition in the debates.
Chen Chin-hsin, who had been insisting that the alliance should take part in the debate as the opposition, acknowledged that the group's willingness to participate in the debate was a bonus for the pan-blue camp.
"The debate with Sisy Chen and the others arguing in opposition to the referendum questions will provide an opportunity for the general public to see how absurd Chen Shui-bian's proposed referendum is," Chen Chin-hsin said.
KMT Legislator Yu Tzu-shiang, who also serves as the alliance's campaign spokesman, yesterday stressed that the alliance had nothing to do with the group.
Stating that the debates are being held to argue over the substance of the two referendum questions, Yu said the alliance would not take part in the debates because "it has no different opinions with regard to the [two] questions."
According to Chin Heng-wei, a political commentator and editor-in-chief of Contemporary Monthly magazine, the individuals are known for their pro-unification stance and have been long-term advisors to the pan-blue camp.
Sisy Chen, formerly the Democratic Progressive Party's (DPP) publicity chief, has now allied herself with the pan-blue camp and has been the driving force behind the pan-blue camp's publicity machine.
Li had run as the New Party's presidential candidate in the 2000 presidential election while Jaw, a former New Party legislator, had run an unsuccessful mayoral election against Chen Shui-bian during the 1994 Taipei mayoral race.
"For them to want to participate in the debate, they have to first accept the premise that Chen Shui-bian's proposed referendum is legal before they could engage in the debate in the first place," Chin said.
"In other words, the very fact that these people are eager to play the `negative side' of the debate suggests that their stance on Chen Shui-bian's planned referendum is not in sync with that of the pan-blue alliance, which has branded Chen Shui-bian's planned referendum illegal," he added.
The alliance has been insisting that Chen Shui-bian's proposal lacked a statutory basis and did not meet the criteria detailed in Article 17 of the Referendum Law.
Article 17 entitles the president to initiate a defensive referendum on national security issues "whenever the country is faced by an external threat that could interfere with national sovereignty."
Chen Shui-bian's two proposed questions will ask people whether they support enhancing the nation's defensive capabilities should China refuse to withdraw the missiles it has targeted at Taiwan, and whether or not the government should hold talks with China on cross-strait peace and stability.
In response to a query about whether the debates would have impact on the alliance's electoral outlook, as merely holding the series of debates could be construed as highlighting the DPP's advantages on the issue, Alex Tsai, another opposition alliance spokesman, said that he thought it would not.
"The alliance has done quite a bit of research and polling on the issue of the referendum, and the results of our research tell us that the majority of the public is treating the referendum as an issue separate from the presidential election," said Tsai.
"Given that, no matter how heated the issue of the referendum may become [as a result of the debates], it would not have much impact on the presidential election," he said.
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On Feb. 19, 2004 ……
China must drop its currency peg
By Tung Chen-yuan
Rumors about the Chinese yuan's appreciation have once again bubbled to the top of the business agenda. Since the end of last year, the Chinese media have revealed many times that Beijing hopes to change the yuan's exchange rate system from one in which the currency is pegged to the US dollar, to one where it is pegged to a basket of currencies.
If we take the basket to be the currencies of China's top 10 trade partners, the yuan's nominal exchange rate will rise by around 5 percent. In addition, there may also be some adjustment to the yuan's fluctuation band -- to a margin of plus or minus 2.5 percent, for example. Overall, the Chinese government has the room to appreciate the yuan's nominal exchange rate by 7 to 8 percent this year.
Such a major change in the Chinese government's attitude is not a matter of yielding to pressure from international powers, but of following strong market forces, both domestic and foreign. After 25 years of reforms, the Chinese government's intervention in the financial system is gradually failing. Besides, large loopholes have emerged in capital account controls. Market forces will determine policy on the yuan's future appreciation. On Feb. 10, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao stressed during an internal meeting that China will maintain the "basic stability" of the yuan's exchange rate while at the same time steadily promoting reforms in the hope of having market forces determine the exchange rate.
"Market forces" primarily mean the supply-demand balance of foreign exchange. Foreign exchange reserves and international hot money play crucial roles in this, but the increasing imbalance in the domestic economy puts more direct pressure on exchange rate policy.
The steep rise in foreign exchange reserves creates a steep rise in monetary supply and credit, which in turn causes the imbalance in China's internal economy to increase gradually. From May to November last year, both credit and the broad money surplus increased by amounts exceeding 20 percent. By the end of December, the broad money surplus rose by 19.6 percent compared to the end of the previous year. Loans grew by 21.4 percent. Following the rapid increase in credit, commodity prices, which had fallen by 1.3 percent in April 2002, rose gradually, posting a 3.2 percent increase last December. In less than two years, China has moved from worrying about worsening deflation to worrying about whether the economy is overheated.
The problems are more complex, however. China's inflation is driven by raw materials and foodstuff prices, but 90 percent of industrial products are still in a state of oversupply. Today, the steep rise in credit is accelerating the overheating and overproduction in some industries, especially in the steel, cement, automobile, electrolyzed aluminum and other raw-material sectors, pushing China to the brink of an economic bubble and then giving rise to serious financial and deflation problems.
Eager to avoid affecting the speed of economic growth, the Chinese government does not want to raise interest rates. It is trying to reduce investment in overheated sectors by executive orders and exhortation to prevent an expansion of the imbalance in its economic structure and to reduce the risk of overheating. To this day, however, such administrative approaches have not been effective. Market forces have the upper hand.
China's Minister of Commerce Lu Fuyuan was quite right when he said at the Fifth Asia-Europe High-Level Economic Forum last July, "China's economic situation is the most important consideration in its decision on the exchange rate. The suggestions and concern from other countries are only of secondary importance."
China certainly has enough political prowess to resist international political pressure, but the continued expansion of internal and external economic imbalances is an important factor in why China may have no other choice than to consider raising the yuan's value appropriately.
Tung Chen-yuan is an associate research fellow at the Institute of International Relations at National Chengchi University.
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On Feb. 19, 2004 ……
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